Glenigan, one of the construction sector’s leading insight experts, has released the November 2022 edition of its Construction Index which shows Northern Ireland project-starts saw another performance uptick.
The Index focuses on the three months to the end of October 2022, covering all underlying projects across the UK with a total value of £100m or less (unless otherwise indicated), with all figures seasonally adjusted.
The key takeaway from November’s Index is the gradual levelling out of project-start decline, which has characterised the Index since May 2022.
However, whilst performance has stabilised, overall underlying project-starts remain at a low ebb, 17% lower than the previous three months to October, and 13% down on the same period last year.
According to Glenigan’s Senior Economist, Rhys Gadsby, “It’s encouraging to see a fall in project starts has slowed during the period covered by this Index, however, optimism should be cautious. Our recent Forecast, released last week, indicated some gale-force headwinds going into 2023, so we shouldn’t expect this performance plateau to be the harbinger of full recovery, at least in the short term.”
Sector Analysis – Residential
Decline was consistent across the board, with project-starts falling 21% against the preceding three months to stand 10% lower than 2021 levels.
Despite social housing faring slightly better compared to other verticals covered in the Index (-7% against the previous three months), the value still dipped 26% against last year.
In contrast, private housing-starts tumbled 24% on the previous three months whilst only falling 6% compared to 2021.
Sector Analysis – Non-Residential
The downward trend continues in the non-residential verticals. However, office project-starts were an exception, remaining largely unchanged on a year ago and were up an impressive 11% on the three months preceding October. Whilst industrial starts were up 4% on the previous three months, they slipped 15% behind 2021 levels.
Hotel and leisure starts fell 19% against the preceding three months, experiencing a massive 38% decline against last year. Education (-24%) and health (-41%) work starting on site also declined against the previous three months, respectively standing 28% and 31% lower than a year ago.
Civils project starts slipped back 13% against the previous three months but remained stable compared to 2021 figures.
Regional Analysis
Similar to other Glenigan Indexes published in 2022, Northern Ireland project-starts saw another performance uptick, rising 16% on the previous three months and up by a massive 35% on a year ago.
Scotland also experienced a strong period, with on-site starts up 19% on the last three months and 10% higher than 2021.
Project-start performance was less consistent in other regions. Whilst Wales witnessed a 25% boost against the preceding year, figures were 5% down on the previous three months. The North West remained largely unchanged on the last three months and a modest 2% down on 2021.
All other regions registered decline during the November Index period, and compared to last year. Project-starts in London and Yorkshire & The Humber both experienced steep falls (-35%) against 2021 levels.
